By Atlantic Council experts
9. How does this crisis play into Vladimir Putin’s internal politics?
Putin’s autocratic and kleptocratic regime feels threatened by the existence of stable and transparent democracies on its borders. In this case, however, Putin’s decision to manufacture and instigate a crisis with Ukraine is not primarily driven by domestic political considerations—but by his recognition of an opportunity to advance his longstanding geopolitical goal of reestablishing Moscow’s control over key areas of the former Soviet space, specifically Ukraine and Belarus. The last time Putin invaded Ukraine, it resulted in a sharp rise in his popularity; but if he launches a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it will most likely not be a “small victorious war.” Instead, there is a strong probability that it will result in a Ukrainian insurgency, a high level of Russian casualties, and severe economic pain due to Western sanctions. Therefore, Putin could be taking on significant domestic political risks by pursuing his geopolitical ambitions.
—Brian Whitmore is a nonresident senior fellow at the Eurasia Center.