From military deployments to cyber attacks, Belarus is now clearly a full participant in Russia’s escalating campaign against Ukraine.
Russia began moving troops into Belarus this week, ostensibly in preparation for joint military exercises scheduled to take place in February. The exercises, named United Resolve, will reportedly be held in western Belarus near to the borders with Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania.
The move came as Vladimir Putin’s Russia continued to concentrate an estimated 100,000 troops in areas close to its border with Ukraine and as Moscow steadily expanded its military footprint in Belarus. Russia said on January 18 that 12 SU-35 fighter jets, two divisions of S-400 air defense systems, and a division of Pantsir-S air defense systems were currently being deployed in Belarus.
The additional deployment of Russian forces to Belarus means that Moscow can now attack Ukraine from Russia in the east and southeast, from the annexed Crimean peninsula in the south, and from Belarus in the north.
Basing troops in Belarus provides Russia with one particularly important logistical advantage. It gives Moscow the ability to reach Kyiv, which is just 90 kilometers from the Belarusian border, without crossing the Dnipro River. Military analysts fear that if the Kremlin launches simultaneous offensives from the north, south, and east, such a multi-pronged attack could severely stretch Ukraine’s defenses.
Konrad Muzyka, director of the Poland-based Rochan consultancy, told Reuters that as a result of the growing Russian presence in Belarus, Ukraine will be forced to spread its troops thinner and divert forces from positions facing southwest Russia. “They don’t have enough manpower so they’ll have to make choices,” Muzyka commented.