RUSSIA TOMORROW: FIVE SCENARIOS FOR RUSSIA’S FUTURE

What will Russia look like in 10 years, or 20? How much longer will Vladimir Putin’s two-decade-plus rule last? Who — and what — will come after him? Will Russia continue its expansionist and anti-Western course? Or will it seek rapprochement? Will Russia remain intact, or will it disintegrate like the Soviet Union before it? And how should the United States and its allies prepare for all of these contingencies? Continue reading

The Black Sea Front

It has become one of the critical fault lines in the geopolitical clash between Russia and the West. The Black Sea region — which encompasses NATO allies Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey; Western partners Ukraine and Georgia; and of course, an increasingly aggressive and revanchist Russia — was a tense and contested area even before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since the invasion, this competition and the potential for conflict have only escalated. Continue reading